CRAIG FULLER: Trucking tied to midwest manufacturing is starting to really light up.

Interesting development happening in our two tender rejection indices:

OTRI is the legacy rejection index. It has a large retail and manufacturing. but lacked a ton of CPG.

When we introduced the STRI index, we added are more CPG and food (with far more reefer and regional… pic.twitter.com/wJFfhQTRQt

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) February 19, 2026

Interesting development happening in our two tender rejection indices: OTRI is the legacy rejection index. It has a large retail and manufacturing. but lacked a ton of CPG. When we introduced the STRI index, we added are more CPG and food (with far more reefer and regional freight) and combined it with the legacy OTRI data. STRI is a better indicator (2x as large dataset) and while the indexes follow closely, there are times when they reveal interesting things when they diverge. We are seeing a very small slow down in the reefer [i.e., refrigerator] market, largely due to a "cooling" of protect from freeze as warmer weather exist. This is showing up in the STRI index, which has had a small drop this week. Interestingly, the legacy OTRI index is showing the market is firming, rather that cooling. Analysis: trucking capacity that is focused on retail and manufacturing (non CPG) are starting to outpace the CPG-heavier STRI index.

Trucking tied to midwest manufacturing is starting to really light up. 

Tender rejections in freight (particularly in the trucking and truckload logistics industry) refer to situations where a carrier (like a trucking company) declines or refuses a load offer (called a "tender") from a shipper under a pre-existing contract.

This is an insane map of tender rejections by region.

We haven't seen a map like this since 2021.

Activity in auto, energy, and rust-belt equipment manufacturing is having a hell of a rebound in 2026.  pic.twitter.com/aPZZlov4fU

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) February 19, 2026

Tender rejections.  

SAMOSAUR: The amount of criminality, fraud, inexperience behind the wheel of a rig, safety standards which have all but been thrown out with ELDs, cargo theft, cartel trafficking and more is mind blowing.

I’ve interviewed three people in the last few months with decades of experience in the industry.

Two of them are truckers with 20+ and 30+ years of driving experience, and one of them was a CDL instructor for 20 years.

The danger our nation is in, and even you, a normal… https://t.co/JqZfJmycsa pic.twitter.com/aH2XJ3X5GZ

— Shoe (@samosaur) February 19, 2026

ELDs, Electronic Logging Devices. 

Feds expand non-domiciled CDL crackdown to Illinois. State risks losing $128M in highway funding over immigrant truckers

Well, this seems like a big enough concern to alter the states' policies.  

Feds expand non-domiciled CDL crackdown to Illinois

State risks losing $128M in highway funding over immigrant truckers

This would be the most impactful crackdown thus far to the capacity map https://t.co/njyVsIeT5I

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) February 18, 2026

FreightWaves.  

FREIGHT WAVES: Did you know 80% of safety professionals started behind the wheel? Trucking isn't just a job; it’s a career launchpad.

Did you know 80% of safety professionals started behind the wheel?

Trucking isn't just a job; it’s a career launchpad. pic.twitter.com/zc0XS1CFqz

— FreightWaves (@FreightWaves) February 17, 2026

FREIGHT WAVES. 

Meet Lindsey Trent, [LinkedIn] Co-Founder and President of the Next Generation in Trucking Association! With her extensive industry experience and passion for building a skilled, diverse workforce, Lindsey is dedicated to promoting trucking careers and connecting young people to training opportunities. Don’t miss her presentation, “How to Get Involved with Your Local Schools: It Is Easier Than You Think!” where she’ll share practical tips on engaging with schools to promote trucking careers. #TTW24 #NavigatingNewHorizons. Tank Truck. Next Gen.

CRAIG FULLER: ELP violation out of service is up to 95 per day. I believe this will continue to go up as law enforcement takes this issue seriously.

ELP violation out of service is up to 95 per day.

I believe this will continue to go up as law enforcement takes this issue do seriously. pic.twitter.com/R2ahbPHHNc

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) February 18, 2026

CRAIG FULLER: February the weakest month of the year.

Truckload rejections pop to 14.01%, near the highest levels they've been in years. It is notable that this is happening in Mid-February, normally one of the worst months for freight.

Shippers should prepare for significant rate increases this year and even if carriers… pic.twitter.com/HC0Fg63uBo

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) February 17, 2026

February the weakest month of the year.

Road conditions continue to be tight.  Container rejections are at 14.01%.  This is a sign that capacity is not loosening up despite the fact that weather is well behind us, in fact, last week was one of the best weeks of weather that we've had in some time and yet container rejections stayed extremely high compared to where they'd been in many years.  What I think is really interesting is that we are starting to see that as conditions tighten up we are hearing that shippers are finding it harder and harder to rely upon their carriers to take freight at the existing rates.  We're also finding that brokers are talking a lot about the fact that they're having to pay out significantly for spot market capacity.  If conditions hold, if we see strong container rejections continue for the next couple of weeks, it's a very clear sign that this market is not going to suddenly flip into the kinds of conditions that we've known the last couple of years.  This market is completely different.  The fact that this is happening mid-February should be noted by everybody that's in freight.  This is very atypical. February is arguably one of the weakest months of the year.  January you end up with a lot of returns that drive a lot of the market, gift card season that drives a lot of the market.  February doesn't really have a ton of things that are real catalysts and we don't see catalysts in Freight until March where you start seeing the spring shipping season, things like gardening, Construction, produce.  Those all start in March and beverages heat up as we get into the later portions of the spring as the weather gets hotter.  Things like beer and water bottles and sodas and all that stuff does peak as we head into the summer.  And so the fact that this is happening in February is the strongest sign that the great Freight recession is clearly over with and I think it's something that shippers should take note.  It's going to be harder and harder to rely upon your motor carriers to honor those existing rates.  If you've done an RFP this season [Request for Proposal], you should expect that the carriers that did these RFPs are probably going to expect some kinds of rate concessions as you head into the year because they probably had an orientation of thinking that Freight would be softer than it has turned out to be.  Therefore, prepare to ensure that you have some backups built into your routing guides . . .